Hurricane and Tropical Forecast
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364
ABNT20 KNHC 181732
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located several hundred miles south of the
Azores. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center has issued the
final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence, located just
off the coast of New England.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Brown
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018
...JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 18 the center of Joyce was located near 30.9, -27.8 with movement SSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018711 WTNT35 KNHC 182028 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 ...JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 27.8W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 27.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to gradually turn to the southwest and west through early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low late tonight or early Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Campbell/Blake
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018712 WTNT25 KNHC 182028 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 27.8W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 205 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 27.8W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 27.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.2N 28.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.6N 29.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.1N 30.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 27.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CAMPBELL/BLAKE
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018812 WTNT45 KNHC 182029 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 Deep convection has generally been on the wane during the past day or so near the center of Joyce, and it is getting very close to no longer having organized deep convection. With the decrease in overall organization, the initial wind speed is set to 25 kt. An environment of strong westerly vertical wind shear (30-40 kt) and marginal sea surface temperatures (around 25C) should cause Joyce to become a remnant low by late tonight or early Wednesday. This agrees well with the latest global model guidance, and the timing of remnant low status has been moved up to 12 hours (or less). The initial motion of Joyce continues to turn and is now south- southwestward (205 degrees at 6 kt). The depression is forecast to turn increasingly to the southwest and west as the central Atlantic ridge builds to the north. Model guidance, except the HWRF, is tightly clustered, so the new forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one, closest to the HCCA consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 30.9N 27.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 30.2N 28.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 29.6N 29.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 29.1N 30.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Campbell/Blake
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018
699
FONT15 KNHC 182028
PWSAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER CAMPBELL/BLAKE
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 20:49:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 21:21:27 GMT
