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000
ABNT20 KNHC 032317
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene, located over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
...ARLENE NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 the center of Arlene was located near 23.7, -84.7 with movement SSE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jun 03 2023000 WTNT32 KNHC 032038 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023 500 PM EDT Sat Jun 03 2023 ...ARLENE NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 84.7W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 84.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the east is expected by tonight, and that motion should continue until the system dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Arlene is expected to dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized higher amounts up to 5 inches are possible into this evening across portions of the southern Florida Peninsula. The heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Arlene. For additional information on the remnant low, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 03 2023479 WTNT22 KNHC 032037 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023 2100 UTC SAT JUN 03 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 84.7W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 84.7W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.6N 83.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 84.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ARLENE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND ONLINE AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jun 03 2023000 WTNT42 KNHC 032039 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023 500 PM EDT Sat Jun 03 2023 Arlene has lacked organized deep convection for quite some time now, since about 07Z. There have been a few short-lived small bursts of convection in the northeast quadrant, but they have been getting quickly sheared off and lack organization. Therefore, Arlene no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone and the system is now a remnant low. The initial intensity is estimated to be 25 kt based on a partial ASCAT pass, surface observations, and the earlier reconnaissance data. Strong vertical wind shear and dry air should continue to cause weakening, and this system is expected to open into a trough on Sunday. The low pressure area is moving south-southeastward at 6 kt. A turn to the east is expected tonight and that motion should continue until the system dissipates. The remnant low will likely enhance rainfall over portions of southern Florida through tonight. This is the last NHC advisory on Arlene. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.7N 84.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/0600Z 23.6N 83.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 03 2023
000
FONT12 KNHC 032038
PWSAT2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023
2100 UTC SAT JUN 03 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Jun 2023 20:39:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Jun 2023 21:22:07 GMT
