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000
ABNT20 KNHC 270536
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form
in the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Pasch
...PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 26 the center of Philippe was located near 17.4, -52.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023000 WTNT32 KNHC 270236 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023 ...PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 52.0W ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 52.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 27 2023000 WTNT22 KNHC 270236 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0300 UTC WED SEP 27 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 52.0W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 170SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 120SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 52.0W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 51.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.9N 53.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 55.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N 56.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.8N 58.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N 59.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 20.1N 64.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 20.2N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 52.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023000 WTNT42 KNHC 270240 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2023 After the previous advisory, there was a convective burst with cloud tops as cold as -80C that formed near the circulation center. More recently, this burst has been waning in intensity, and it would not be surprising to see the vortex become exposed again shortly as 20-30 kt southwesterly vertical wind shear continues. While subjective and objective intensity estimates continue to suggest a weaker storm, a helpful 0015 UTC ASCAT-B pass still showed a large region of 35-40 kt winds in the northeastern side of the circulation, in fact requiring an expansion of the tropical storm force winds in that quadrant. Based primarily on the scatterometer data, Philippe's intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. The intensity forecast appears rather straightforward. The current vertical wind shear over Philippe is expected to continue through most of the forecast period, helping to import drier air into the circulation, that should prevent additional convective bursts from organizing the system. By 72 hours, both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that Philippe should no longer have organized deep convection, which is when the forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low. As mentioned previously, this could happen sooner than forecasted given the unfavorable environment. After moving south of due west earlier today, Philippe appears to have resumed a north of due west heading, estimated at 280/10 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on this motion continuing with a bend westward in 36-48 hours as the cyclone becomes primarily steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast remains along or just south of the model guidance consensus aids, and is between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.4N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 17.9N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.8N 55.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.4N 56.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 19.8N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 20.0N 59.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.0N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 20.1N 64.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z 20.2N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 27 2023
000
FONT12 KNHC 270236
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC WED SEP 27 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2023 02:37:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2023 03:22:53 GMT
